Economist: Local jobless rate will top 9%

MTSU professor tells CRE confab that 'forecasted improvement is being pushed out'

Email | Print By Geert De Lombaerde

The Nashville area's unemployment rate will rise 1.9 percentage points this year and another point in 2010, a local economist said this morning.

Speaking to commercial real estate professionals meeting at The Factory for their annual Economic Forum, Dr. David Penn said the region's jobless rate will reach 9.4 percent next year before beginning to inch its way down. That would put the region right in line with the national unemployment rate forecasts of many economists.

"That's the worst case," said Penn, who leads the Business and Economic Research Center at Middle Tennessee State University. "It could be helped by the stimulus."

Penn pointed out that Nashville's unemployment rate rose 1.7 percentage points from March to December, finishing the year at 6.5 percent. Of particular concern, he said, is the 10-percent drop in the region's manufacturing job base.

And while there was some optimism last fall about the economy bottoming out this spring, most people are now looking at the end of the year at the earliest.

"The forecasted improvement is being pushed out," Penn said. "We had hoped for some positive numbers late last year, but the negative figures appear to be accelerating."