In Tommy Thompson's scenario, health reform passes this year

But former health secretary says that might require some good-cop, bad-cop from the White House

Email | Print By Erin Lawley

11-17-2009 7:41 AM — In a lively presentation at Belmont University Monday afternoon, Former U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson discussed the potential future of health reform legislation currently before Congress.

Thompson said he expects a bill will be on President Obama’s desk before Christmas. That bill will include a public option, health insurance exchanges, taxes for people who make more than $200,000 per year, taxes on so-called “Cadillac” health plans, and employer credits for wellness and prevention programs.

How that bill gets to the president’s desk could play out in multiple ways, Thompson said, with the impending Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays playing no small role.

To avoid a filibuster and having to work through the Thanksgiving holiday, he expects Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid will either 1) cut a deal with Republicans to agree to vote on the bill in early December or 2) pass reconciliation to limit debate and get a vote before the holiday.

From there, the Senate bill will be melded with the House bill, which passed more than a week ago, in conference committee. There, legislators will hash out whether to get rid of the pro-life amendment added to HB3200 in order to get it passed, whether to include a public option, and whether to tax so-called Cadillac health plans to help pay for Medicare, among other issues.

If no bill comes out of committee by Dec. 20, he expects the committee members will be summoned to the White House to meet with Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel and President Obama. In Thompson’s bad-cop, good-cop scenario, Emanuel yells some expletives and Obama calmly reminds the legislators that not only is Christmas on its way, so is a mid-term election year. And if a bill does not pass, that election may mean many of those legislators are out of a job.

“And guess what? They’re gonna have the votes,” Thompson said.