Double-digit leads for McCain and Alexander

Internal campaign poll says Tennessee very much a red state heading toward November, but Democratic candidate disputes numbers

Email | Print By Ken Whitehouse

John McCain

A poll conducted by the campaign to re-elect U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander has Republicans seeing red – as in the color television network will use for states won by the GOP on election nights.

In a memo sent to Nashville businessman and Alexander for Senate finance chairman Ted Welch, Republican pollster Whit Ayres says that Arizona Senator and Republican presidential candidate John McCain has a double-digit lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

The poll was conducted over Aug. 10-12 and reached 500 registered voters.

The Tennessee Senate race doesn't look much different from the poll's point of view, with Democratic nominee Bob Tuke trailing Alexander by a sizable margin.

When asked for comment about the polling memorandum, Chris Song, spokesman for Tuke said, "Bob Tuke, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, is a mere ten points behind incumbent Senator Lamar Alexander in a recent poll of likely voters, and expects to gain more widespread name recognition and support by replicating strategies used to win in the primary election in Shelby County and Davidson County, including all its surrounding counties."

Song added, "When voters were told that Senator Alexander has received more than $360,000 from Big Oil interests, has voted for unfair trade deals resulting in 43,000 lost manufacturing jobs in Tennessee, against Medicare for seniors and TRICARE for military families, and against updating G.I. Bill benefits for veterans returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan, poll results showed a shrinking Alexander advantage of 49% to 39%, putting Tuke - who has served as a Marine Vietnam combat veteran, an adoption attorney with strong family values, and a fiscal conservative who supports balanced budgets - within striking distance of unseating Senator Alexander in November."

Here is a copy of the memo:

To: Ted Welch, General Finance Chairman, Alexander for Senate
From: Whit Ayres
Date: August 13, 2008

Subject: Post-Primary Polling Results in Tennessee Regarding the U.S. Senate Race

The Democrats have now selected their nominee to run against Senator Lamar Alexander and, despite a full-blown primary campaign, nothing has changed in the U.S. Senate race. Senator Alexander continues to enjoy the same overwhelming lead he had in March. Moreover, his job approval and favorable ratings are virtually identical as in March. Our most recent survey was conducted August 10-12, 2008, and the previous survey was conducted March 5, 6, 8, and 9, 2008. Highlights of the surveys include:

1. Sixty-seven percent of Tennessee voters approve of the job Lamar Alexander is doing in the U.S. Senate, virtually identical to his rating in March. Senator Alexander's job approval stands at 67 percent with 17 percent disapproval. Last March his rating was 68 percent approve and 17 percent disapprove. At a time when most Americans are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, that is extraordinarily high job approval for a U.S. Senator.

2. Senator Alexander enjoys a 66 to 18 percent favorable to unfavorable rating today, again virtually identical to March. His rating in the previous survey was 67 percent favorable and 18 percent unfavorable.

3. Senator Alexander leads Bob Tuke by 60 to 30 percent with 10 percent undecided, almost identical to the 59 to 28 percent lead he held over Tuke last March. Even if all the undecided voters are allocated to Tuke, an unlikely event at this point given Tuke's low name recognition, Alexander would still lead by 20 percentage points today.

4. Bob Tuke remains almost unknown in the state. Bob Tuke has name recognition among Tennessee voters of only 27 percent, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 11 to 4 percent.

5. Based on his strength among Independents, Senator John McCain continues to enjoy a double-digit lead over Barack Obama in Tennessee. McCain leads Obama by 51 to 36 percent, compared to 53 to 36 percent last March. John McCain's favorable to unfavorable rating today in Tennessee is 59 to 33 percent, compared to 59 to 34 percent last March. (George W. Bush's rating in the state is 48 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable.) Barack Obama has a net unfavorable rating of 42 percent favorable to 47 percent unfavorable, compared to 44 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable last March. The McCain-Obama match-up is clearly a help to Republicans in Tennessee.

Senator Alexander continues to enjoy extraordinary support in Tennessee. He stands in a very strong position for reelection to the U.S. Senate.

Methodology

Ayres, McHenry & Associates surveyed 500 registered voters throughout Tennessee on August 10-12, 2008. The March survey was conducted among 600 registered voters on March 5-9, 2008. The party balance is typical for what we usually find in Tennessee: 35 percent are Republicans, 30 percent are Independents, and 31 percent are Democrats, with the remainder unsure. Respondents for both surveys were selected by random-digit dialing to ensure that those with unlisted numbers were included in the sample, and all confirmed that they are registered to vote in their county. The margin of error for the statewide sample is ±4.38 percent.