News Analysis: Forget Hillary, the news is Huckabee

The former Arkansas governor wins Tennessee, and Fred Thompson's vote is the margin

Email | Print By Ken Whitehouse

Mike Huckabee

The news coming out of Tennessee's Super Tuesday can be summed up with one word: Huckabee.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton won the Tennessee Democratic primary – not a shocker and not really news. Her campaign made a concentrated effort here in contrast to that of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Obama hasn't appeared at a public rally in Nashville since former Congressman Harold Ford Jr.'s failed senate bid, while the Clinton family was here twice in the past week.

Nationally, neither Clinton nor Obama scored a knock-out, meaning their fight will go on. Again, not a surprise. Now that we have covered, let's get to the real story.

Mike Huckabee.

The former Arkansas governor won the popular vote in Tennessee's Republican primary. While both Arizona's Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won delegates, Huckabee gets to wear the title belt.

What is even more interesting is that votes in the Volunteer State cast for former Sen. Fred Thompson appear to be the margin of victory between Huckabee and McCain. The almost 16,000 votes for Fred would have been enough for McCain to beat out Huckabee.

Many of those votes were cast prior to Thompson's exit from the race, but a large number of them were likely protest votes over the remaining GOP field as well as in allegiance to Fred. You can't help but wonder how many Fredheads would like a do-over right now. From my experiences over the course of the past few months following them, many seem to dislike Huckabee as much as they love Fred.

What we know is this: There is an enormous fracture in the structure of the Tennessee Republican Party.

While we fully expect statements to come out from members of Tennessee's Republican establishment that they will "unite behind the GOP nominee" and that he will be "the voice of reason over those Godless liberals that are Democrats," I promise you this: Behind closed doors, those same people are in shock and dismay over the fact that Huckabee carried Tennessee.

Who are the establishment members of the Tennessee Republican Party? They are the major fundraisers for the party who don't own buildings — they own whole city blocks. They are the members of the state senate and house. They are the operatives who have spent years building the stages from which candidates speak and driving the interstates to the rallies.

With the exception of former Tennessee GOP chairman Chip Saltsman, not a one of them supports Huckabee.

The battle for the Democratic nomination has been juvenile and bitter at times, but the differences between Hillary and Obama pale in comparison to what Tennessee Republicans are facing. Personalities are clashing on the Democratic side, but it's ideological warfare in the GOP.

Some of the fault lines were evident when Bob Corker beat Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. Talk from the more conservative quarters of the state was that Corker was too moderate and not a true representative of Tennessee's "conservative values." The numbers posted in that primary election suggest that if Hilleary hadn't have been in the race, Bryant most likely would have bested Corker.

Many Bryant/Hilleary Republicans grudgingly supported Corker instead of staying home because they vehemently disliked Ford. But they still believed they weren't supporting a "true conservative."

Fast-forward to this presidential primary, and those fault lines were still there, but Thompson held the party together. He had a coalition made up of Tennessee's Rockefeller and Reagan Republicans, Christian conservatives, blue bloods and blue collars. Obviously, that coalition didn't exist anywhere else for him, and when he exited stage right, the coalition fell apart and each faction went back to its corner, left with no "true conservative" to agree upon.

The Republican establishment here went in three directions upon Fred's departure: Romney, McCain, and "I'm keeping my mouth shut because I don't want to raise money for anybody else." Again, not a single Huckabee endorsement from the GOP heavyweights. In fact, the only Tennessee endorsement he got came from Tennessee Right to Life.

What the GOP leaders here saw last night is that their campaign contributions and endorsements don't command the troops as they once did. Those leaders brought groups like the Christian Coalition to the dance in the 1990s and are now learning that such voters have minds of their own. Even though the once-prominent Coalition has become irrelevant, its former members have stayed and don't do what they are told.

Huckabee won here fair and square and has showed what the largest faction of the Republican Party is in this state. But it still an underdog in the presidential field. McCain has cemented his status as front-runner nationally, but would not like to play the role of Corker in Tennessee come November. That role is getting votes because of who you aren't, not because of who you are.

The GOP establishment in Tennessee has its work cut out for it. Its leaders will undoubtedly come together, but they now have to recognize that their big tent has a new center ring.