The Political Futures Index: Vol. III

From Tennessee Blue Chips to bomb throwers, we have the latest on your political investments

Email | Print By Ken Whitehouse

It's time for you to check your portfolio, who is up, who is down and who needs a better publicist. Yup, it's NashvillePost.com's monthly Political Futures Index.

For the uninitiated, each month NashvillePost.com rates the body politic. Much like your financial adviser tells you to buy, hold or sell on any given stock, we do the same here - except it's politics. These "political futures" will change from month to month, depending on how the "market" reacts to that person's or group's maneuvering.

The ratings come from consultations with a mish-mash of political junkies, Democrats and Republicans, to assign the most accurate rating possible at the time of publication. This unofficial consortium of political hacks make up the "market watchers."

We won't rate all the same politicos every month, but if you'd like to nominate someone to be added to the portfolio, shoot an e-mail to ken.whitehouse@nashvillepost.com.

Now let's take a look at the Big Board:

The Blue Chips

Johnny Hayes and Tom Ingram - Just like Wal-Mart, Coca-Cola, Gillette and Berkshire Hathaway, these guys are well established, have stable earnings and no extensive liabilities.

If you are a Democratic investor, having Hayes in your portfolio gives you the cachet you need at both the national and state levels. His most recent triumph was Hillary Clinton's victory over Barack Obama in Tennessee's presidential primary. While she may be tanking nationally, Hayes' value will not diminish if Obama secures the nomination for the Democrats.

Ingram is your Blue Chip if you are a Republican investor. This GOP operative is the significant force behind the rise of Lamar Alexander in the U.S. Senate. While his management of Bob Corker's 2006 victory was significant, it's Lamar's current mojo that cements Ingram's blue-chip status.

Tennessee Democrats - Buy

Don't get us wrong, the "market watchers" don't expect much out of Tennessee's Democratic U.S. Senate candidates in November, but with the entry of former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett and the all-but-certain entry of Nashville attorney Bob Tuke, Democrats are at least now on the dance floor.

Both Padgett and Tuke will have a lot to prove if they want to knock off Lamar, but for Tennessee Democrats the news is good in that they have the hopes of a credible candidate that is more representative of the party than former Green Party candidate Chris Lugo.

Vice-Presidential candidate being from Tennessee - Sell

As politicos everywhere slowly turn their attention to who will be the running mate for John McCain, or Obama/Clinton, Tennesseans should put very little hope in having a Volunteer State person on the national ticket. While last month we said Frist was being "discussed," it's not likely.

On the Democratic side, we occasionally hear about Phil Bredesen as a possible running mate and we aren't buying that either. While Phil could end up in D.C. in some capacity at some point, it won't be because of a vice-presidential run. One reason is the "bunker battle," which really hasn't affected his popularity here, but would be an unnessecary distraction for any national campaign.

If you want to "buy" regionally on this one, consider Mississippi's GOP Gov. Haley Barbour. While he may not make the cut, he is definitely one to watch and invest in.

Rep. Stacey Campfield - Sell

Having Campfield as a "sell" probably isn't a surprise to most, but his antics in the legislature are becoming difficult for many of his own colleagues to stomach. The Republican is a "bomb thrower" in the legislature: He introduces legislation that has no hope of passage but raises awareness of social or economic issues.

There are other bomb throwers on both sides of the aisle, but they usually have allies. Two examples, one local and one historical, are State Rep. Glen Casada and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. They both started their careers in legislative bodies making speeches and comments that upset the status quo in their own parties, but they also worked with their colleagues and eventually became leaders in their caucuses.

Campfield throws the bombs, to the delight of an element of his party, but it has become increasingly less effective because he has no significant allies to realistically affect the change he desires.

The most recent example is attempt to "ban the teaching of homosexuality" in Tennessee schools. Campfield had no help in the committee he introduced the legislation in, split more hairs than an 80s "glam" band, and then refused to speak to the press outside of the committee room when his legislation failed, instead asking people to come to his office.

He came back later to the Capitol's press room to apologize for running off, but said that he had been told by friends he shouldn't be in large crowds after introducing legislation like that.

Seems like there is a larger message there that is being missed by the Knoxvillian.