News analysis: Dean vs. Clement, the battle begins

Metro voters have spoken, and it's Karl Dean vs. Bob Clement. The run-off battle has just begun, and it's already getting ugly... and risky. (Audio from Clement and Dean speeches added 10:55 a.m. Friday)

Email | Print By Ken Whitehouse

Karl Dean and Bob Clement

When the polls closed on Nashville's mayoral elections, two men were left standing. The run-off contest began immediately. Former congressman Bob Clement will face Metro's former law director Karl Dean in a contest that won't be pretty.

In his speech to supporters Thursday night at the Maxwell House Hotel, Clement started taking round-house swings at Dean. Saying Dean is "out-of-step" with Nashville, Clement cited as an example Dean's opining while legal director that a charter amendment regarding how property taxes are raised -- and later approved by voters -- likely would be deemed unconstitutional in court.

In a statement delivered on the podium and e-mailed to media as the candidate was taking the stage, Clement said, "Recently, the people of this community went to the polls and passed an amendment to the Metropolitan Charter saying that increases in the property tax had to be approved by a vote of the people, and 77 percent of the people of Nashville voted in favor. And yet, the city's legal director wrote an opinion that said you were wrong to vote the way you voted. Karl Dean said it was against the law for you to vote to approve tax increases by referendum. And that means that Karl Dean is just out of step with the people of Nashville."

Audio of that portion of the speech is available at this link. Another excerpt, in which Clement excoriated illegal immigrants who "lay siege to our neighborhoods" and promised to "fix the problem" is at this link.

Clement also accused Dean of not earning his way into the race and accused him of "buying it," a swing at Dean who infused his campaign coffers with significant money from his family. Dean's wife, Anne Davis, is heir to a fortune amassed by her uncle, the late businessman Joe C. Davis.

When Dean took the stage at his campaign rally at the Adventure Science Center, he largely ignored the jabs taken at him moments before and a few miles away by Clement.

His only punch at Clement came as he took the podium: "This is a great city," Dean told supporters. (Clement's campaign slogan is, "Taking Nashville from good to great.") "We need to continue the 16 years we've had of progressive and pragmatic and ethical leadership in the mayor's office." By implication, the candidate suggested that electing Clement would represent a return to the bad old days of the Bill Boner administration.

Dean then promised to run a positive campaign and spoke briefly about education and public safety. Audio from his speech is at this link.

It will be interesting to see how long Dean can stay positive, and conversely, how long Clement will stay negative.

Separated by fewer than 100 votes at the time of publication of this article, Clement and Dean have a long way to go until the September 11 run-off. How voters respond in tracking polls that will be run by the two campaigns will have a lot to do with the strategies set by the candidates.

While Clement came out after the polls closed swinging and spirited, showing more fight than before in this race, the former congressman who represented Nashville for more than a decade in Washington is clearly in a fight for his political life. The fact that a rival who was largely unknown until just a few months ago surpassed him in today's race shows that many of his former constituents have drifted from the fold. Just four years ago, it was unthinkable to challenge Clement in a county-wide race. Now, he has placed second in a county-wide race.

By attacking Dean, Clement risks losing even more of his former supporters and scaring away the rivals whom he bested tonight. In order for a candidate to successfully "go negative" on an opponent, he must have a reservoir of expendable "good will" among voters. Tonight, it is unclear how much good will Clement can spend without the aggresive campaign tactic backfiring on him.

Nashville knows Clement, or did until this election. His campaign held a commanding lead early that has steadily eroded over the course of the past two months. There are many Nashville voters who cast their ballot for the person they believed was the best candidate, be it Clement, Dean, Howard Gentry, Buck Dozier, or David Briley. But there arguably was a significant "anybody but Clement" vote out there as well.

The fact that Clement came in second tonight and bested the poorly funded Gentry campaign by only a little more than a thousand votes should indicate that voters are ambivalent about him. Clement's tough talk on Dean is meant to cast doubt on someone largely known through television commericals. It was also an attempt to show that the "nice guy" that is Bob Clement, the formerly partisan Democrat, will be tough on hot-button conservative issues that voters care about. Clement spoke at his rally that he will be aggressive in rounding up illegal immigrants and hold the line on property taxes. What remains to be seen is whether the supporters of tonight's losing campaigns will buy into it.

Dean, who promised to run a positive campaign in the run-off, will either win or lose based on Clement's attacks. If the "anybody but Clement" faction coalesces around him, Clement's barbs wont stick. But if Dean completely ignores the jabs thrown his way, he risks succumbing to the same fate of another Massachusetts native in a much larger race.

In 1988, former Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis lost a huge lead and the presidency of the United States to George H.W. Bush because he let his opponent define him. While Dean wants to stay positive, he will have to aggressively counter the attacks.

Both candidates are sure to throw some heavy punches over the course of this run-off election. Some will be clean shots; many others will land below the belt. These campaigns won't be pretty to watch, but their relative effectiveness will have a lot to do with the direction of our city over the next four, or eight, years.