News analysis: Why Fred waits

How Thompson's presidential campaign benefits from the suspense

Email | Print By Ken Whitehouse

Fred Thompson

Like Estragon and Vladmir in "Waiting for Godot," anxious Republicans are sitting on the edge of the political wilderness awaiting former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson's official arrival on the presidential campaign trail.

If you are one of those people, don't hang yourself. Godot is coming, and his reasons for the delay are valid.

When a candidate for president, the United States Senate or any other office says "I am running!" a slew of federal regulations kick in. From fundraising rules to reporting expenses, when you say you are in, it'll cost you. Impatient as "Fredheads" may be, holding off is saving their man and his campaign money by playing coy with the electorate.

Sure, more cash will come in when he declares, but it doesn't look as though delays would hurt his fundraising, as might be the case with other candidates. At this time, a post-Labor Day announcement seems to be the spot where the campaign can balance the needs of saving money now without hurting itself in fundraising.

When you take money out of the equation for delayed political announcements, there are even more advantages in waiting.

Once Thompson declares, the gloves will come off. He will be not only on the offensive, but on the defensive as well. Rivals for the GOP nomination, who have already bloodied each other, will turn on Thompson and unleash whatever their opposition researchers have dug up on him. There are distinct advantages, in political pugilism, to being the last one to enter the ring, after all your opponents have worn themselves out. You boxing fans can relate it to Angelo Dundee's "rope-a-adope" tactic employed by Muhammed Ali.

The hope among Thompson insiders is that by the time Fred gets in, attacks from rivals Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani and others will have the credibility of an Ann Coulter speech on civility. Meanwhile, Fred can say: "Look, their campaigns are struggling. They are just trying to stay afloat."

The delayed campaign also will benefit by having had the extra time to put together a staff.

While some of the top slots appear to have been filled, it's the ground troops that will win the war. As campaigns like Arizona Senator John McCain's implode and staffers from other campaigns become disillusioned and wooed, team Thompson can cherry pick from the lot.

A winter during the Iowa caucuses spent motivating fresh-faced believers from Lawrenceburg and beyond is harder than you might think. Putting your volunteer army in the right locations is even harder. Putting together the team that can win you support at the retail level is crucial. Time spent now evaluating who may be an effective staffer for an ineffective candidate can enable a campaign to steal a march by stealing talent away from a fading opponent.

Finally, and perhaps even more significantly for Thompson, are the issues.

Appearing "presidential" won't be a problem for Fred, nor will being able to deliver a great speech. But the content of those speeches will likely be listened to with perhaps a keener ear than in campaigns past.

With presidential and congressional approval ratings among the lowest in history, largely due to the war in Iraq, there is arguably a sense of needed and imminent change in the direction of the country. While Thompson will try to position himself as the "insider's outsider," he won't get a pass on that stance from his opponents or the national press.

Delaying the inevitable presidential announcement allows for more time to formulate structured arguments and policy positions while watching other campaigns flail for an acceptable answer that the electorate wants.

The Thompson campaign also will have to answer questions over issues like the pardoning of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, for whose defense Thompson raised money. He will have to discuss how his views on the Iraq war differ from that of fellow American Enterprise Institute "scholar" and war architect Paul Wolfowitz.

While those issues might not be of concern to Thompson supporters, they are a concern of the national political press. Those news hounds are the ones who will have significant sway in how candidate Fred is perceived by undecided voters. Less-than-convincing answers on those subjects can kill the campaign down the road, and the Thompson camp knows it.

Taking all of these issues into consideration, the Thompson campaign has little to gain from jumping in now, and more to gain from taking the plunge later.