Introducing the Political Futures Index

A new monthly feature brought to you by NashvillePost.com

Email | Print By Ken Whitehouse

Who is it going to be? Who is the next star on the political horizon that the three wise lobbyists will follow, presenting gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh... before being body-tackled by Caesar Ethicus, Bruce Androphy.

While you need to go to Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal or CNBC to follow your financial portfolio, NashvillePost.com has your monthly political portfolio in check.

Each month, NashvillePost.com will rate a number of politicians and interest groups that affect Tennessee's political landscape. Much as your financial adviser tells you to buy, hold, or sell on any given stock, we will do the same here. These "political futures" will change from month to month, depending on how the "market" reacts to that person's or group's maneuvering.

The ratings come from consultations with a mish-mash of political junkies, Democrats and Republicans, to assign the most accurate rating possible at the time of publication. This unofficial consortium of political hacks make up the "market watchers."

We won't rate all the same politicos every month, but if you'd like to nominate someone to be added to the portfolio, shoot an e-mail to ken.whitehouse@nashvillepost.com.

Now, for the inaugural Political Futures Index:

Fred D. Thompson — Sell

The "market watchers" have gone back and forth on this one, wanting to see whether there could be a late surge by the former Arthur Branch in either the Hawkeye, Granite, or Palmetto states. So far, nothing. "Fredheads" can't blame anybody but the candidate and his team. Gains by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, along with key primary state newspaper endorsements going to Senator John McCain, have probably hurt ole' Fred more than any other candidate in search of momentum. It's still possible for the campaign to right itself, especially with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney struggling, but time is running out.

Chip Saltsman — Buy

The former chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party has turned what looked like a dead horse into a thoroughbred. Saltsman signed on to manage the Huckabee campaign after his former boss, Senator Bill Frist, nosedived off the national political stage. At the time, nobody understood why Saltsman would team up with someone whose campaign bus looked like it would run out of gas before reaching Davenport, Iowa. Since then, Huckabee has hit his stride, although he may have peaked a few weeks early. At this point, Huckabee could still tank and Saltsman could claim a personal victory. No matter what happens, Saltsman has a strong future on the national campaign-management stage.

Phil Bredesen — Hold

The Governor has a strong team in place, but some potholes on the horizon. Deputy Governor Stuart Brunson has a year under his belt and has gained some fans amongst key legislative Republicans. Longtime politico Pat Miller's leaving the Tennessee Regulatory Authority to join team Bredesen as chief lobbyist was met with enthusiasm as well. Going into this legislative session, the goodwill is going to be tested as it should be a contentious session due to lingering questions over the "bunker battle" and the state budget estimates coming in under projections. We can't forget that it is also a presidential election year, making everything a bit more partisan. The "market watchers" expect the governor to weather the storm, but feel it best to "hold" on investing at this time until some outstanding issues are resolved.

Ron Ramsey — Hold

The Lieutenant Governor has had a pretty good year, starting off with convincing Democratic State Senator Rosalind Kurita to cross the aisle and end the stranglehold that John Wilder had on the office. While he lost a caucus member in State Senator Mike Williams (to the surprise of no one), he hasn't hit any home runs or committed any major errors. Most of his time as of late has been on the campaign bus of Fred Thompson, which is where he is expected to be. A GOP win in the seat once held by disgraced State Senator Ward Crutchfield would have been a coup, as would a Republican landing in the seat being vacated by State Senator Jerry Cooper. Ramsey declined to weigh in on the controversial "bunker battle" when he had the chance, opting to play it safe for now. When the new legislative session starts next year, "market watchers" expect the intensely partisan Ramsey to kick things into gear, but how well he does it and the issues he chooses to focus on remain to be seen.

John Wilder — Sell

There has never been a more dangerous job in statehouse journalism than writing the political obituary of one John Shelton Wilder Sr.. The former Lieutenant Governor held on to the state's number two job for 36 years, in a tenure rumored to have been the longest anyone in human history has led a democratically elected body. He survived coup attempts from within his own party and challenges from across the aisle, until early this year. One of his strongest arguments in his West Tennessee district was that when the people were re-electing him, they were re-electing the Lieutenant Governor. That argument has long gone, and now the man from Mason has announced that he will seek re-election next year for the seat he has held since 1966. While just over a year ago it seemed that Wilder could retire on his terms, the issue is in doubt now as the increasingly Republican district he represents seems ready to mount the challenge to end his legislative career. Anyone counting Wilder out before has gone out on a limb, but that branch has gotten stronger as of late. Time to sell.

Karl Dean — Buy

Nashville's new mayor had about as full a plate as one could ask for when he took office. Starting off, Dean had to negotiate the new lease with the Nashville Predators. He could have walked away, but instead played hardball and was able to strike a deal with the new owners that protected the city. Credit should go to the new owners as well, but this deal wouldn't have happened without Dean and the negotiating team he put together. On the horizon, Dean looks like he will be forced to deal with Metro Schools and has hinted that he relishes the chance. Public education is and has always been a political landmine, but with the state of Metro Schools being what they are, Dean grabbing the bull by the horns would be a welcome event to most of the "market watchers."